It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
