Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.